Does this calculator use the most recent data?

I would like to comment on how unreliable this is. I did this for fun after COMMITING to UCI, and my result was: Public records show that very few students (less than 10%) similar to you were accepted to UC Irvine in the past. Unless you feel that you were educated in highly unusual circumstances, perhaps another school would better suit you.
So, to all of the people worrying or happy about their results, don't be.

Roger: Congrats on getting in!

Hello Roger! I have a few questions and I'm really worried about my coming years in high school. I'm currently a sophomore and have a 3.3 gpa (including my freshman year) and haven't been doing so well due to depression (and other personal problems). I feel a lot better and signed up for 5 aps for my junior year. I am also taking a SAT class right now, and it is helping me improve my score tremendously. The thing that I'm worried about is my poor performance in my Sophomore year. I barely got myself to work, and struggled with my problems quite a lot, however, towards the end of the year I have gotten myself together and have been able to raise my grades a little bit. I really want to go to UCLA or UC Berkeley but I don't know if it will be possible in my current state. I really don't want to be pulled down because of this huge bump I had this year... so I was wondering if I still have a chance.... Your calculator said that there wasn't enough information, so I'm just curious.

Thanks,
Sirj

PS - If it helps, I take multiple ECs, such as Robotics, DECA, Science Olympiad, and QuizBowl.

Roger: Write about your sophomore year experience in your personal statement. It’ll make a difference!

Well that 26% chance was all I needed to score UC davis as an out of state female english major transfer. Twas a joyful morning when I got that email.

Roger: Congratulations!!

How did you get into EECS? Any advice?

Roger: I was interested in computers and started teaching myself programming when I was 10. But at the same time, lots of applicants who already know how to write programs don’t get accepted. It’s helpful to have a healthy interest in programming and some experience, but don’t let it get in the way of regular school stuff.

Please make a transfer student version!

Hi Roger,
the calculator is amazing
I know previous comments said not to ask you about college admissions but I still wanted to ask
I am kind of held back in school, because I lived in a foreign country for so long, up till the end of my freshman year. I managed to score an honors (Honors Brit Lit) sophomore year, and 3 AP (Lang, US History, Music theory) 1 honors(Alg 2) junior year, 4 AP(Stats, bio/chem, lit, Gov) 1 Honors (Spanish 4) senior year, presumably.
If I get all As my UC GPA by the end of junior year would be 4.2, the calculator said.
The issue here is I'm taking a class at UCI in the summer, how does that factor into my GPA, or does that not factor in at all

my race is white and Asian, so I just put different races with same grades in your calc, Asian turned out have a better chance than white

Thanks you're amazing

Roger: I think that taking college courses won’t ever hurt your chances, and also I believe the UC W/C GPA is computed for statistical purposes only (it’s included in released data in retrospect). I’m not sure how college courses affects that, but it shouldn’t make a difference, since that GPA doesn’t determine anything anyway.

is this calculatorr up to date? like thiese dont calculate up to be the expectations from like 2006 right? This is like the expectations for like 2015 applicants?

Roger: The data is from 2009. The UC Statfinder program was shut down soon after and there is no more publicly available data with the same granularity that it provided.

Hey Roger, for the capped v uncapped situation, do they just use your capped to make the cut off for the minimum requirement, or do they generally look at your app with capped GPA.
For example, if my capped was 3.9 and my uncapped was 4.12, would the 4.12 be taken into consideration and the 3.9 just used to weed out a minimum cutoff requirement? Thanks

Roger: I think the GPA is calculated for statistical purposes only. Your courseload is supposed to be evaluated holistically, not just summarized as a number.

Ok..., I moved my ACT score from a 34 to a 35 and it jumped from "27%" to "Holy Smokes!"

Roger: Check out what I wrote in the previous comment.

I did the test and I got a 2320 on my SAT. If I improve my SAT reading by 20 points (I got a 720), my score goes from 62% to Holy Smokes!
I was wondering if this was accurate, does a 750 or a 720 matter that much or is it just how the program works?

Roger: The “Holy Smokes!” result means that at least one of the models used in the calculator has reached the threshold, past which it’s no longer a useful predictor. It’s not the case that a 30 point change in your SAT score will drastically change your chance of admissions. Does that help?

Coming from a proud 2x UCLA Bruin alum, get your grades and SATs as high as you can get them. More importantly, the difference between an admission and rejection will fall upon your extracurricular activities and ESPECIALLY your personal statement!

The calculator above said I would not get into UCLA and should consider applying to another school. Clearly, numbers don't tell the whole story!

I've heard that UCs don't look at your freshman GPA and does not take that into consideration in their own calculations... Is this true???

Roger: I’ve heard that too.

Hello,

I am a junior this year and wondering about my chances of getting into my dream school UCLA. By the end of my senior year I will have completed
Geometry H
Algebra 2-H
Pre-Calc H
Calc-AB AP SENIOR YEAR
Bio 1-H
Bio-AP
Physics H
Chem H SENIOR YEAR
Psychology AP
English 1-H
English 2-H
English 3-Film
English 4-AP
European History- AP
US History-Film
Economics AP/ with government SENIOR YEAR
Technical Theater Beginning
Technical Theater Advanced
PE 1
Independent PE- SENIOR YEAR
Musical Production- Second semester (All 4 years)
Spanish 1
Spanish 2
Spanish 3-H
Film Academy SENIOR YEAR
Internship Academy SENIOR YEAR

So far I have gotten A in all my classes and received 4 on the AP tests that I have taken. Right now my UC GPA is 4.33, and 10th on GPA is 4.3. As far as extra curricular I participate in Karate and am a black-belt, I am part of a leadership program where I teach karate to young children, and I am currently the head costumer during our schools productions in the fall and spring. During this summer I will also be participating in an internship as UCSD hospital. I would like to enter UCLA with the intention of getting some sort of Bio degree, as I want to be in the field of medical research. Do I have a decent shot?

Roger: Sure, I think you do. Maybe you should ask your counselor instead though. I don’t work in college admissions.

When is this calculator from?

Roger: As mentioned below, the data used is from 2009, which was the last released dataset on UC Statfinder.

I am pretty sure that the admission statistics released by UCs are about uncapped weighted GPAs. The only purpose for which the capped GPA is used is to determine eligibility for UC admissions. Therefore, your formula, based on capped GPA, may be understating a student's chances of getting into a UC because uncapped weighted GPAs are significantly higher than capped weighted GPAs. Have you thought about this? Thanks.

Roger: The data I used to construct the calculator contained both weighted/capped and weighted/uncapped GPA’s, I believe. I chose to ignore the uncapped statistics, since those had more variance and were less useful than the capped ones. The calculator doesn’t use a formula, per se. The parameters are derived from models that seemed to fit the data well (a mix of quadratic and exponential curves), rather than an priori estimation. Either way, it’s supposed to be capped/weighted, and that isn’t a mistake. Hope that clears things up!

I took some community college classes during my sophomore and junior year and I took Precalculus as a one semester course (5 units) and got a C, which means it counts for 16.65 units at the high school level. Do you think that will kill my chances of admission at Davis or Irvine? With the C, the calculator said I would have a 58% chance, but without it said "Holy Smokes!" Would one C (in a college level math course I took as a junior in hs) really have that big of an impact on my chances of admission? Thanks!

Roger: The calculator is really catered to very average students (no community college), so don’t take it too seriously. I don’t think your C will affect your chances, but I’m not an expert on college admissions.

Hi Roger,

I have dreamed of doing EECS since I was 6 years old (I am 17 now and a junior) and it is my deepest desire to complete this major at UC Berkeley. I know that you are not an expert college admissions counselor but here are my stats:

16 APs/Honors (will have done this throughout HS) and about a 3.8-3.9 GPA:

Bio H, Chem H, Physics H, AP Physics, English Honors, English 2 Honors, AP English Language, AP English Literature, Precalculus Honors, AP Calc AB, AP Calc BC, AP European History, AP Economics/AP Government, AP Computer Science, French 4AP, AP Psychology

- active participant in Robotics and Speech and Debate team
- passionate about CS and EE (I have coded many applications that I use around my house) + taken classes at colleges + participated at programming competitions/hackathons + made my own apps (on Google Play Store)
^ these are the bare basics

I know that the Cal EECS admissions rate is ridiculous (and I'm a guy, which doesn't help my situation). Again, I know you are not an expert on college admissions but what can I do to get in?

Thanks!

Roger: Sounds like you’ll probably get in already. Just don’t screw up on your application.

Should I rely on this (not solely), or should I follow my Asian parent's standards? (I'm currently a junior at Dougherty Valley HS, graduating in June of 2016)

Roger: Where do YOU want to go?

Does UC have different pools for CA Residents, Non-CA Residents and Internationals?

Roger: As far as I know, everyone uses the same pool. There’s a pool in the Hearst Women’s Gym at Berkeley, but men can use it too. (In all seriousness, I don’t know how the details work, but the data seems to suggest different admission rates for in-state residents vs out-of-state.)

just curious, why should race and gender be a factor in the admissions process?

Roger: That’s a great question, and a lot of people argue about that every day. (Race and gender might not be a direct factor, but things that are caused by race and gender may be.)

Just Wondering, what does the school have to do with chances? Do certain schools get better benefits? If so, why do they get those certain benefits?

Roger: The API score of the high school seems to have an effect on admissions chances. It’s not a strict benefit or loss to have a good/bad school. In fact, I think the data suggested admissions favor both strongly negative and strongly positive ratings, but not so much the average ones. Might have just been sampling bias though.

lol look at all the comments .. ridiculous. Roger, thank you so much for this calculator. Idk why people are asking you for their "chances" when no one knows -_-

Hello, does thid calculator also include the impacted majores like computer science (and other engineering) ?
Is the acceptance rate affected my the major you select?

Roger: Yes, differences in admissions for different majors was factored in.

Is this Admissions Calculator up to date?

Roger: (copied from below) The data is from 2009. The UC Statfinder program was shut down soon after and there is no more publicly available data with the same granularity that it provided.

I'm a little confused on the GPA portion. I have a copy of my transcript. I have a 4.22 Cumulative GPA (weighted); 4.0 Cumulative GPA (unweighted) ; 4.0 CA Cal Grant GPA; 4.42 Weighted 10-12 A-G GPA. Which GPA should be used?

Roger: So, the released statistics included something called the UC Weighted and Capped GPA, which isn’t usually included on transcripts. It’s a special GPA that they use for their own purposes. None of the ones you listed sound right, but you can calculated your UC C/W GPA with this calculator.

Hey Roger,

Thanks for making such and amazing calculator! It really helped me to strive for my SAT scores and my APs.
Thanks again!

Because I'm pretty sure that school is ghetto. Don't 50% of students go to a CC? I went to Torrey Pines which was harder. So I can't believe they have a 9/10. Isn't it easier for students there to get into UC's because of how easy the school is?

San Dieguito high academy has an API of 1... I believe. Are the APIs up to date? you gave it a 9.

Roger: The scores were retrieved at the same time as the rest of the data.

This calculator is a bust. It said my chances were extremely low, but I got into UC Berkeley my first application out of high school and have been excelling there since. Also, many of my fellow students had even worse stats than me. Not too sure where this data is from, but definitely take it with a grain of salt.

Roger: Congrats! Glad you made it.

Hi. Does the formula account for disparities between individual SAT section scores? For example, is a 750,750,750 score "ranked" higher than a 800, 650, 800 score despite the equivalent composite scores?

Roger: No it does not. The stats that were released only had information about composite SAT scores.

Just wondering, how recent is the data of past applications?

Roger: As mentioned below, the data used is from 2009, which was the last released dataset on UC Statfinder.

Thank you! And one more question,, why does it day maximum 8 for the total semester of AP courses?

Roger: When the data was released, one of the statistics included was the Weighted and Capped UC GPA, which limits the total number of honors points at 8.

Hello, does a B in weighed class(AP/some honors) counts as an A?

Roger: The short answer is yes. If you’re calculating the weighted GPA, honors courses get an extra point. So, it depends on what you’re calculating.

Dear Roger, In the calculator when it says semesters of AP classes, does it count 9th grade also, and if taking multiple classes, do you count them twice?

Roger: Don’t count 9th grade AP courses. And if you’ve retaken a course and you got a failing grade the first time, UC’s let you replace your failing grade. Hope that helps!

Dear Roger, I calculated my weighted GPA as 4.375 based on all my honors and AP courses. But when fed in this data to your calculator it gave me 3.88. Is this due to the max 8 that I entered in the AP/honors section?

Many thx in adv,

Roger: The calculator is based on a weighted and capped GPA, which was how the statistics were originally published. That’s why the calculator only gives you a 3.88.

Hi Roger! Thank you for making this awesome program! Lately I've been hearing that UCs tend to stop looking at someone's application once they see an F? What are your opinions on that?

Roger: I’ve never heard that before. I don’t know very much about actual college admissions though. I’m more interested in data science, which is why I made the calculator. (And you’re welcome!)

I have a question and I am concerned... I want to apply to UC Davis. I am in incoming junior. During my sophomore year, I failed one term of Honors Geometry (my school has block schedule meaning 4 classes each term) I failed Honors Geometry with a D the first time but passed the 2 part of geometry. Ongoing to Honors alg2, I will also be retaking Honors Geometry as one of my elective. I notice that in order to be accepted to UC Davis, you must perform with a C or higher. I am retaking the class and I know that I will pass it. But I want to know if this lower the chances of me getting accepted in a UC even though I am retaking the class to redeem my grade?

Roger: Hi there. I don’t know much about college admissions, so I don’t think I can help you out. I suggest you ask your counselor instead. Good luck!

Why do poorer rated High schools weight heavier on admission chances, does it denote a negative trend in the API curves? What's your personal opinion?

Roger: That’s not necessarily the case. I don’t exactly understand the reasoning behind the effect of API on admissions rates, but it seems that schools with very high or very low API scores tend to have better admissions rates. Schools with average API scores are disadvantaged in this sense.

how much does your major change your chances of admission?

Roger: According to the statistics, admissions rates can vary between different fields of study, simply because some majors are more impacted than others.

Hello,
I would like to know if schools such as UCLA and UC Berkeley take 9th grade into consideration for GPA

Roger: I think that college admissions will consider every piece of information they get about you, but the weighted and capped GPA calculation is done without including 9th grade courses.

Also, my school takes weighted GPA on a 5.0 scale.. does university of california take it the same way? Or on a 4.0 scale?

Roger: I believe that the UC weighted GPA is for statistical purposes only.

Hi,
Does university of California only consider your high school GPA from tenth grade onwards?

Roger: I’ve heard that more weight is given to your courses from tenth grades onward. The statistics used in this calculator are based on a GPA calculated without including 9th grade courses. I don’t know what that means for actual admissions though.

Thank you so much for your help, Roger! I've been calculating my GPA wrong for the longest time, but now I know the right way to do it!

Thanks again!!!

Hi Roger! I was wondering how to calculate GPA correctly..

I currently have a 3.3UW/3.45 W GPA (bc I messed up sophomore year and my school is top 10 in America :/ )

I will be getting a 3.6 this semester (weighted) and I was wondering how I would calculate my GPA with the second semester in it.

I will also be taking all APs senior year... Hypothetically speaking (and in no way do I think this is possible) but from my most recent GPA with the 3.6 from second semester in it, what would be my final GPA after 1st semester of senior year, having pulled off all A's and a 5.0? (Again, highlyyy unlikely)

Addendum: would it be better if I swapped one or two of those courses for CP or 4 point classes that I KNOW I could get A's in? Would that help if I didn't end up getting all A's in my 5-points?

Thank you so, so much!!!

Roger: You can estimate your GPA like this: since your 3.45 weighted GPA accounts for 5 semesters, and your 3.6 counts for 1 semester, just add 3.45 × 5 and 3.6, then divide by 6, which is the total number of semesters. You can calculate your unweighted GPA in a similar way, using your unweighted semester GPA. If you want a more exact calculation, get a copy of your transcript and try taking the average using that. Hope this helps!

Hi Roger,
Freshman Year I got one C and some B's... in Honors classes (rest A's)
Sophomore Year I got some B's as well but no C's (rest A's)
Junior Year I got All A's with 3 AP test scores
I scored a perfect on the sat reasoning test as well as three perfects on my sat II's.
I do a ton of EC's and got 2 scholarships. I would really like to get into either UCB or UCLA..
Will the C kill me and also what are my chances? Thanks.

Roger: I don’t know much about college admissions. Sorry. Have you tried using the calculator?

Will the schools be looking at the first semester of our senior year?

Roger: Yes, of course.

Does this still use the latest data?

Roger: Nothing has changed since your previous comment.

This doesnt really correlate to scatterplots from cappex and parchment.

Hello,

How is this calculated?

Roger: You can find a detailed description in the area underneath the calculator labeled “How this works”.